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Over the past two years, India’s energy landscape has been reshaped by an unexpected player — Russian crude oil. Deep discounts and strong compatibility with India’s refining systems have made it a natural fit, leading to a sharp surge in imports. For refiners, the equation was simple: affordable feedstock, smooth processing, and healthy margins for both domestic consumption and exports.

But what if that tap slows to a trickle? Replacing Russian oil wouldn’t be as simple as finding another supplier. Likely alternatives would come from the Middle East, Latin America or Africa, and even the US. While these sources could bridge the supply gap, they come at a steep price.

Without Russian discounts, feedstock costs would climb sharply. Add in higher freight charges, costlier credit terms, and potential technical yield mismatches, and refiners face a squeeze on both sides — paying more to bring oil in while earning less from what they produce. This “commercial pain” could ripple beyond company balance sheets, affecting fuel prices, trade competitiveness, and India’s fiscal stability.

The challenge is not just about finding oil, but about finding the right oil — at the right price, in the right quality, and in quantities that match India’s refining strengths. For now, Russian crude ticks all those boxes. Shifting away means recalibrating the entire system, from supply contracts to refining processes.

So, should India hold on to its Russian oil lifeline despite global pressures, or start the costly process of diversification? The answer is far from simple — and perhaps, for now, best left open.